Today I recieved another update on the current situation in Lebanon, one year after the July war in 2006. Let us ensure that we do all we can to reduce terrorism.
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Security Report
Lebanon’s internal political negotiations have failed numerous times to reach an agreement over key issues such as the formation of a new government and its agenda, the disarmament of Hezbollah and the election of a new President in Fall 2007-2008, due to unwillingness of parties to compromise. Moreover, sudden security incidents such as explosions or targeted political assassinations of loyalists have increased mistrust between both negotiating parties, leading to the present deadlock.
There are many indications of the presence of Al-Qaeda or its offspring terrorist organizations in Lebanon. At least this is what has revealed the recent arrest of a “sleeping cell” in Bar Elias in the “Beqaa” area, while planning for major terrorist attacks.
The recorded testimonies of Fateh El-Islam members, captured by the Lebanese Army, and of different Arab nationalities (mainly Saudi, Syrian and Palestinian) revealed the following: Islamic extremist groups have been generously funded and trained outside Lebanon, have succeeded in a terrorist attacks on civilian buses in “Ain Alak” last January, and were still organizing and planning more terrorist crimes and assassinations of politicians in the coming months.
The ability of the Lebanese intelligence to abort these plans and of the Lebanese security forces to prevent these attacks is at present the biggest test the Lebanese Government faces. It is true that attacks of organized terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda have been difficult to prevent even in militarily and technologically advanced countries such as the USA and the UK. However, the big question is whether Lebanon’s Siniora Government, with the assistance of its western allies, be able to face these terrorists in the same way as the Pervez Mecharraf government is doing in Pakistan, the other option being a failure to internal chaos fed by the Shiite-Sunni historic schism such as in Iraq?
Different intelligence sources expect more security incidents in an attempt to increasingly destabilize the Lebanese Government, the Statehood components of which are not far of a “Failed State.” In addition to the events in North Lebanon, members of the Spanish UNIFIL troops were killed a few weeks ago by a terrorist attack indicating that security is still violated in South Lebanon despite international presence. Nevertheless, the political decision of the Spanish government to remain its UNIFIL troops and the decision of other countries to keep their missions in Lebanon represent defiance to terrorist cells, which have warned in the words of “Al-Zawahiri” the Western and pro-Israeli “crusaders” in Lebanon, an easy targeted country where religious and sectarian differences form a prosperous battle field. At present, all local political and security factors indicate that more terrorist attacks are very likely to take place during this critical period, at least until September 2007 before the election of a new Lebanese President. For these reasons, local politicians, especially anti-Syrian MPs and ministers, were advised and have chosen to reside outside Lebanon during this period.
Despite a heavy diplomatic activity and a close follow-up at the local political level by foreign diplomatic missions, those continue to warn their nationals against unnecessary travel to Lebanon due to the unstable and unpredictable situation that could suddenly deteriorate in any area that have been so far spared of the violent attacks.
The Government of Lebanon is heavily relying on the assistance and expertise of Interpol and security services of friendly countries in counter-terrorism.
13/07/2007
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